- Research projects 70,000 annual deaths from smoke by 2050.
- Health damages could surpass all other U.S. climate costs.
- No region of the country is immune to smoke exposure.
Monday, September 22, 2025 — On September 19, 2025, Stanford University released a study in Nature
warning that wildfire smoke could cause about 70,000 deaths annually in the United States by 2050. Researchers found that smoke, fueled by climate change and larger, longer-lasting wildfires, now represents one of the most underestimated threats to public health.
Although wildfires have long been part of the Western landscape, warmer and drier conditions are driving larger and more frequent fires. Smoke from these blazes is traveling farther and lingering longer, creating health risks not just in the West but across the country.
Research Findings.
The Stanford team analyzed U.S. death records from 2006 through 2019, combining them with smoke emission data, wind variation, and particulate matter movement. They used machine learning models to estimate future impacts under different climate scenarios.
Their findings suggest that excess deaths linked to fine particulate matter in smoke, known as PM2.5, could rise from about 40,000 annually (2011–2020) to 70,000 by mid-century. California could see 5,060 additional deaths per year, with other large increases projected in New York, Washington, Texas, and Pennsylvania.
When monetized, annual damages from smoke-related deaths could reach $608 billion by 2050. That figure exceeds current estimates of all other U.S. climate-driven damages combined, including storm destruction, agricultural losses, and heat-related deaths.
Nationwide Impacts.
“No community in the U.S. is safe from smoke exposure,” said Minghao Qiu, lead author of the study and now an assistant professor at Stony Brook University. He noted that while the West sees the largest increases, long-range smoke transport has already caused massive smoke events in the East and Midwest.
Senior author Marshall Burke of Stanford added, “Our paper puts some numbers on what that change in exposure means for health outcomes, both now and in the future as the climate warms.”
Health Risks.
Deaths tied to wildfire smoke often result from inhaling PM2.5, which can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream. While health effects from industrial PM2.5 are well studied, less is known about wildfire-specific particles, which can include toxic chemicals from burning vegetation, plastics, and structures.
The study shows that smoke exposure can contribute to deaths not just immediately but for up to three years after the initial exposure. Vulnerable populations include children, pregnant people, individuals with asthma, and those with serious health conditions such as cancer.
What Can Be Done.
The study’s authors suggest that actions by public health officials and communities could help mitigate the risks. Strategies include better indoor air filtration, prescribed burns, and improved forest management. Even under aggressive global emission cuts, however, U.S. smoke-related deaths are projected to exceed 60,000 annually by 2050.
Researchers argue that climate models and policy tools often fail to incorporate wildfire smoke mortality, leaving out a major factor in U.S. climate impacts.
Citation for this Article.
Stanford University. “Wildfire smoke could kill 70,000 Americans a year by 2050.” ScienceDaily, 19 September 2025.
FAQ
What is PM2.5 and why is it dangerous?
PM2.5 refers to fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns. These particles can reach deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, contributing to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and premature death.
How many deaths are currently linked to wildfire smoke?
Between 2011 and 2020, smoke was linked to about 40,000 deaths annually in the United States.
How high could the toll rise by 2050?
The study projects that, under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, annual deaths could reach 70,000 nationwide.
Are only Western states affected?
No. While Western states see more frequent fires, smoke travels thousands of miles. States such as New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas are also projected to see significant increases in deaths.
What are the estimated economic damages?
By 2050, smoke-related deaths could generate $608 billion in annual economic damages, surpassing the combined costs of other U.S. climate-related impacts.
Can the risks be reduced?
Yes. Public health measures such as air filtration, prescribed burns, and improved land management can reduce exposure. However, even with strong emission cuts, deaths are projected to remain high.
