- Drought worsened across much of the Midwest and Northeast.
- Western reservoirs show mixed results, with California strong but Colorado River low.
- Arizona and New Mexico saw contrasting monsoon rainfall.
- Lake Powell and Lake Mead remain below half capacity.
Saturday, September 6, 2025 –– Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor
reported worsening drought across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Rainfall in the past 30 days has fallen short by 3 to 5 inches in many of those areas, with New England and the Lower Midwest hardest hit. Some of these regions logged their driest records on file.
In the West, California’s largest reservoirs are well above seasonal averages but the Colorado River system continues to show troublingly low levels. Temperatures across the country split sharply: the East was cooler than normal, while the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest ran hotter than usual.
Reservoir Storage in the West.
California’s reservoirs are in strong shape as of September 2. Lake Shasta is at 104 percent of average, while Lake Oroville is at 112 percent. In contrast, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reported on September 1 that Lake Powell is only 29 percent full (44 percent of average), and Lake Mead is 31 percent full (52 percent). Altogether, the Colorado River system is 38 percent of capacity compared to 44 percent at the same time last year.
Arizona.
Monsoon season rainfall has fallen short in much of Arizona, particularly in Flagstaff, Phoenix, and Tucson. The National Weather Service in Tucson reported below-normal precipitation across much of the state. North-central Arizona saw drought intensify, with expansion of dry areas on the map.
New Mexico.
Unlike Arizona, southern and eastern New Mexico benefited from a more active monsoon. Rainfall brought some improvements to the drought map in these areas, though longer-term deficits remain in parts of the state.
California.
While parts of the Sierra Nevada received scattered thunderstorms, the most important news for California is in reservoir storage. Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville are both above average for early September, helping to ease water supply pressures heading into fall.
Colorado.
Some areas of Colorado benefited from isolated showers, especially in the Rockies, leading to localized improvement on the drought map. Temperatures across the state were 5 to 10 degrees below normal, adding to short-term relief.
Nevada.
Isolated storm activity brought light rain to parts of Nevada, but overall conditions remain mixed. The Great Basin saw some improvement, though drought persists across the state, especially in the drier central regions.
Utah.
Northern Utah saw modest improvement thanks to scattered showers, though conditions remain stressed in many areas. Like Colorado, the state experienced cooler-than-average temperatures, which helped reduce immediate demand for water.
Wyoming.
Southern Wyoming received some rainfall and cooler temperatures, helping stabilize conditions. However, northern portions of the state remain drier, with above-normal heat recorded in neighboring Montana and the Idaho Panhandle.
The Forecast.
The National Weather Service forecast for the week ahead calls for heavy precipitation in southeastern Arizona, linked to remnants of Hurricane Lorena. The Climate Prediction Center outlook for mid-September suggests above-normal temperatures across most of the West and Plains, with chances of above-normal rainfall in many regions except the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and New England.
