- Arizona drought officials recommended extending the state’s drought emergency.
- A strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean.
- Experts say El Niño may not bring major rainfall to Arizona.
- Forecasters also warned that Summer 2026 could be hotter than normal.
Monday, May 25, 2026 — Arizona water officials and climate experts are once again warning that drought conditions remain serious across the state, even as a powerful El Niño pattern develops in the Pacific Ocean.
During the Arizona Drought Interagency Coordinating Group’s spring meeting on May 20, 2026
, state and federal experts reviewed climate conditions and future forecasts before recommending that Governor Katie Hobbs continue Arizona’s drought emergency declaration.
Hope for Relief from El Niño.
One of the biggest questions discussed at the meeting centered on the growing El Niño system in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
El Niño events are often associated with wetter weather in parts of the Southwest, raising hopes that the pattern could eventually provide relief for the Colorado River Basin and Arizona’s long-running drought.
National Weather Service meteorologist Mark O’Malley said confidence in the developing El Niño is unusually high for this time of year.
“It’s very high confidence actually,” O’Malley said during the meeting. “Normally in the spring we are in a predictive barrier where there’s a lot of uncertainty. This year is the exception.”
A Strong El Niño Does Not Guarantee Rain.
Forecast models reviewed by the panel reportedly show a strong to possibly “super” El Niño taking shape. The warm Pacific Ocean pattern could last for an extended period.
Still, forecasters stressed that a strong El Niño does not automatically guarantee major rainfall for Arizona or the Colorado River watershed.
“Strong and very strong El Niño conditions don’t necessarily mean bigger impacts for us,” O’Malley explained, noting that the very strong El Niño of 2016 produced little meaningful moisture improvement for Arizona.
Colorado River System Still Under Pressure.
That uncertainty remains especially important because the Colorado River system continues to struggle with reduced runoff and long-term drought stress.
Reservoirs throughout the West remain under pressure after years of below-average snowpack and rising temperatures.
Climate forecasts presented during the meeting also suggested a 46 percent chance that Summer 2026 will be hotter than normal across the region.
Winter Was Warmer and Drier Than Average.
Arizona State Climatologist Dr. Erinanne Saffell reportedly briefed the panel on winter conditions that were frequently warmer and drier than average.
Combined with the outlook for continued heat, the information reinforced concerns that drought impacts could persist well into 2027.
What the Drought Panel Does.
The Interagency Coordinating Group includes more than 20 state agencies, tribes, and federal partners.
Beyond advising the governor on drought declarations, the panel also reviews watershed conditions, forest health, precipitation trends, and seasonal climate forecasts affecting Arizona and the broader Southwest.
No Clear End to the Drought Yet.
For Arizona communities already dealing with shrinking water supplies, stressed forests, and ongoing Colorado River shortages, the latest recommendation signals that state officials do not yet see a clear end to the drought.
