- The framework would allow yearly Lower Basin cuts of up to 3 million acre-feet through 2036.
- Leaders in Arizona, California, and Nevada say the plan puts too much of the burden on them.
- Upper Basin governors from Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico offered a more measured response.
Friday, July 31, 2026 — The federal government released its long-awaited plan for running the Colorado River today. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation published its Final Environmental Impact Statement for operations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead, setting a framework through 2036. The current rules expire at the end of 2026.
The plan would permit yearly Lower Basin cuts of up to 3 million acre-feet, handed out by water-right priority, which could reduce supply for Arizona, California, and Nevada by as much as 40 percent. It sets no Upper Basin reductions. Reaction split along the two halves of the basin.
The Lower Basin’s Own Proposal.
Arizona, California, and Nevada put forward a plan of their own, dated May 1, that they hope the federal government will adopt for 2027 and 2028. Under that plan, the three states would share reductions of 1.25 million acre-feet in each of those two years. They would also save an additional 700,000 acre-feet over the two-year period to help steady Lake Powell and Lake Mead. In all, the states have committed to conserve more than 3.2 million acre-feet in Lake Mead over two years.
The Final Environmental Impact Statement includes an analysis that would allow the federal government to adopt many of the core parts of that proposal. Whether it does so will be decided in the documents still to come.
Upper Basin States: Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
The governors of the four Upper Basin states released a joint statement
. They said they were “encouraged that new operating guidelines will better reflect existing water supply, which must underpin any practicable plan going forward.”
At the same time, the governors cautioned that key parts of the plan rest on agreements that are not yet finished. “It will be difficult to fully assess the effectiveness of operations in the Basin until the agreements are finalized and implemented,” they said.
They did not downplay the state of the river. The statement pointed to “the lowest reservoir levels in the Colorado River System’s history” and said there is no guarantee about future water supply. The governors described the framework as a way to manage the river in the short term while the seven states and the federal government keep working toward a shared solution. Both halves of the basin, they said, are feeling severe drought, and a seven-state agreement would give every water user the best outcome.
Lower Basin States: Arizona, California, and Nevada.
Arizona.
Arizona had the sharpest words, and the most of them.
Governor Katie Hobbs said the plan still contains “unacceptable options” that would force Arizona to take the majority of the cuts. Adopting the Lower Basin agreement instead, she said, would protect Arizona from massive cuts and spread reductions more fairly across the three states. Hobbs also stressed the state’s national role, saying Arizona “provides the agricultural produce, critical minerals, weapons defense systems and cutting-edge semiconductors that feed America, protect America and fuel America’s high-tech economy.”
The numbers help explain the state’s frustration. Reclamation’s accounting shows the Lower Basin’s water use in 2025 was 5.75 million acre-feet, the lowest since 1983. Arizona’s own use was its second lowest since 1992. Even so, without the Lower Basin agreement, Arizona could face cuts to its Central Arizona Project supply of up to 77 percent in 2027 and 2028.
The Arizona Department of Water Resources said the framework contains “sideboards that are unacceptable,” including the possible cut of up to 3 million acre-feet a year from the Lower Basin. The department also said the framework “fails to include any Upper Basin reductions.”
Part of Arizona’s exposure comes down to seniority. Much of the water carried by the Central Arizona Project holds junior priority, which means it is among the first to be cut when supplies shrink.
State lawmakers echoed the concern. Senate President Warren Petersen said Arizona is prepared to be part of a responsible solution but will not accept a plan that protects some states while placing a heavy, uneven burden on Arizona. President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope, whose district includes Pinal County, said farmers there lost their Colorado River water years ago and were forced to fallow fields and lean more on groundwater.
Members of Arizona’s congressional delegation weighed in as well. Senators Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly said the framework could reduce the Lower Basin’s allocation by as much as 40 percent without asking for comparable commitments from the Upper Basin. Representative Adelita Grijalva called any proposal that puts the vast majority of cuts on Arizona “unreasonable and unacceptable,” and said Upper Basin states “hide behind an outdated legal framework.” She said she would keep standing with Yuma County farmers and with Arizona’s Tribal Nations. Representative Greg Stanton called the plan “a total failure of leadership” and described Arizona as “America’s semiconductor capital.”
The City of Phoenix said the plan lands harder on Arizona than on other states, but that the city is prepared. “Phoenix is prepared to use less Colorado River water, but it is wrong to lay a disproportionate share of the burden on Arizona,” Mayor Kate Gallego said.
Phoenix draws its water from more than one source. About 40 percent of the city’s drinking water comes from the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project. About 58 percent comes from the Salt and Verde rivers. About 2 percent comes from groundwater.
The city has spent decades getting ready for a drier river. It has stored roughly 700,000 acre-feet of water underground in the Phoenix and Tucson areas. It runs about 20 groundwater recovery wells and expects to add about 10 more in the coming years. It finished a Drought Pipeline Project that cost about $300 million, and it is building advanced water purification plants under a program called Pure Water Phoenix, which is expected to add more than 50,000 acre-feet of renewable water a year within a decade. Phoenix also notes that it uses about the same total volume of water as it did 30 years ago, even with a much larger population.
For now, daily life will not change. The federal announcement does not immediately alter water service or force mandatory restrictions. Phoenix remains in Stage 1 of its Drought Management Plan and could move to a Stage 2 Water Warning by the end of 2026. “Phoenix has prepared for this moment, and our customers can expect reliable water service,” Water Services Director Brandy Kelso said. “But preparation does not mean we can stand still.”
California.
In California, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California took a steadier view. Assistant General Manager John Bednarski said Colorado River Basin snowpack and reservoir levels are reaching historic lows, and that the 10-year framework is a necessary step forward.
Bednarski also warned that the work is far from over. Without a seven-state agreement, he said, the states will still have to negotiate fresh operating agreements every two years to decide how shortages are shared. He said Metropolitan is prepared to work with other California water users to make needed reductions, but that Lower Basin reductions alone are not enough to make the river sustainable. He said he believes consensus is still possible and that Metropolitan wants a durable, long-term agreement that avoids unnecessary lawsuits.
A second California voice came from the Imperial Irrigation District, which holds some of the most senior water rights on the river and serves farms in the Imperial Valley. The district said the Final Environmental Impact Statement sets a 10-year framework but does not pick specific operating numbers. Those will come through operating plans issued two years at a time, starting with a plan for 2027 and 2028 that the district expects in the coming days.
The district welcomed one part of the framework in particular. It provides for Lower Basin shortages to be shared through agreement, or, if there is no agreement, according to the Law of the River, the long-standing set of laws and agreements that governs the river. “The Final EIS recognizes that changes as to how shortages are shared must come through voluntary agreements,” Board Chairwoman Karin Eugenio said. “That respects senior water rights while allowing the states to work together voluntarily when the system needs help.”
The district also spelled out the May 1 proposal in detail. It calls for 1.25 million acre-feet in yearly reductions across the Lower Basin, split as 440,000 acre-feet for California, 760,000 acre-feet for Arizona, and 50,000 acre-feet for Nevada, along with 700,000 to 1,000,000 acre-feet in system conservation.
General Manager Jamie Asbury said Lake Powell and Lake Mead cannot be treated as separate problems. “A reasonable release from Lake Powell is essential to preventing Lake Mead from bearing a disproportionate share of the system’s decline,” Asbury said. The district also pressed for Upper Basin storage to be part of the solution, noting that the framework sets no defined Upper Basin contributions.
The district pointed to its own record. Since 2003, its conservation programs have saved more than 9.2 million acre-feet of Colorado River water. Its recent system conservation is expected to total about 900,000 acre-feet over the last four years, adding more than 13 feet of elevation in Lake Mead. Eugenio said the district will keep helping as long as its rights are protected, the terms are fair, and taking part stays voluntary.
Nevada.
Governor Joe Lombardo said Nevada leads the seven basin states in water recycling and is well positioned to meet its commitments under any reasonable plan that spreads the sacrifice among all users. He was blunt about the current framework. The statement, he said, “seeks to impose unrealistic reductions on Nevada” and, if carried forward, could bring devastating economic and environmental harm. Lombardo said Nevada has offered reasonable compromise proposals and that he will fight any outcome that hits Nevada communities unfairly.
What Comes Next.
The decision now moves to two documents that have not yet been released. A forthcoming Record of Decision and a set of operating guidelines will spell out the details for 2027 and 2028, along with a framework for the following eight years. The Arizona Department of Water Resources said it hopes those documents follow the May 1 Lower Basin Proposal.
The clock is a factor too. The current operating guidelines expire at the end of 2026. Until the final documents arrive, water managers across the seven states are left to plan for a range of outcomes on a river that all sides agree is running lower than ever before.
